2024年4月25日发(作者：)

Unit1textBWhydosmartpeopledodumbthings?

1Orthodoxviewsprizeintelligenceandintellectualrigorhighlyinthemodernrealmof

heunderlyingassumptionsofthisvaluesystemisthat

smartpeople,byvirtueofwhatthey'velearned,hisis

chologistswhostudyhumandecision-makingprocesseshaveuncoveredcognitive

biasescommontoallpeople,regardlessofintelligence,thatcanleadtopoordecisionsinexperts

andlaymenalike.

tandinghowandinwhatsituationstheyoccur

cangiveyouanawarenessofyourownlimitationsandallowyoutofactorthemintoyour

decision-making.

3Oneofth

thispeopleattributethefailuresofotherstocharacterflawsandtheirowntomerecircumstance,

subconsciouslyconsideringtheirowncharacterstobestainless.“Jenkinslosthisjobbecauseof

hisincompetence;Ilostminebecauseoftherecession.”Italsoleadsustoattributeourown

successtoourqualifications,discountingluck,whileseeingothers'successastheproductofmere

luck.

4Inotherwords,wetypicallydemandmoreaccountabilityfromothersthanwedofromourselves.

Notonlydoesthisleadtopettyjudgmentsaboutotherpeople,italsoleadstofaultyrisk

mple,you

mightassume,withoutevidence,thatthepriceofyourhousewillgoupeventhough90percentof

themhavedroppedinprice,becauseyouyouyourselfaremorecompetent.

5Confirmaehas

,wetendtogatherandrelyuponinformationthatonlyconfirmsourexistingviews.

Second,weavoidorvetothingsthatrefuteourpreexistinghypotheses.

6Forexample,imeitstallsor

hasalittleerror,youassumethatitwastriggeredbyahackerandthatyoursuspicionsarevalid.

Thidepartitions

theirownbeliefsinalogic-proofloop,andclaimstheiropponentisfailingtorecognizevalid

tingconfirmationbiasthereforerequiresexploringbothsidesofanargumentwith

equaldiligence.

ealworld,wecouldbecorrect

100percentofthetimewewere100percentsureaboutsomething,correct80percentofthetime

wewere80percentsureaboutsomething,ity,people'sconfidencevastlyexceeds

asmostfrequentlycomesintoplayinareaswhere

someonehastodirectevidenceandmustmakeaguess-estimatinghowmanypeopleareina

crowdedplaza,forexample,mattersworse,evenwhenpeople

areawareofoverconfidencebias,theywillstilltendtooverstatethechancesthattheyarecorrect.

tnessesare

calledtotestifyInacourttrial,theconfidenceintheirtestimonyismeasuredalongwithand

againsttheevidenceathand.

8Theavailabilitybiasisalsorelatedtoerrorsinestimation,inthatwetendtoestimatewhat

he

retentionandretrievalofmemoriesisbiasedtowardvivid,sensational,oremotionallycharged

examples,decisionsbasedonthemcanoftenleadtostrange,inaccurateconclusions.

9Inactionthisbiasmightleadsomeonetocancelatripto,forexample,theCanaryIslands

sesomepeople

mightstopgoingoutatnightforfearofassaultorrape.

10Repellingtheavailabilitybiascallsforanempiricalapproachtoaparticulardecision,onenot

ealowincidenceofdisaster,likeonlyone

outof100,000planelandingsresultsinacrash,utof

onemillionpeoplewhogooutisassaulted,itissafetogooutatnight.

11Thesunkcost

rswithahighthresholdforriskput

moneyintoaslotmachinehopingforabigreturn,butwitheachpullofthelevertheylosesome

havebeenpullingthelevermanytimesinarowwithoutsuccess,

theymightdecidethattheyhadbetterkeepspendingmoneyatthemachine,ortheywillhave

wastedeverythingtheyalreadyputin.

12Thetruthisthateverypulloftheleverhasthesamewinningprobabilityofnearlyoneina

trillion,regardlessofhowmuchmoneyhasbeenputinbefore—thepreviousplaysweresunk

costs.

13Ineverydaylifethiscanleadpeopletostayindamagingsituationsbecauseofhowmuchthey

havealreadyputin,stuckontheerroneousbeliefthatthevalueofthattimeorenergytheyhave

estcourseistorecognizetheeffectsofthe

sunkcostfallacyandtoleaveabadsituationregardlessofhowmuchyouhavealreadyinvested.

14Whiletherearestillmorebiases,thekeytoavoidingthemremainsthesame:Whenadecision

matters,itisbesttorelyonwatertightlogicandacarefulexaminationoftheevidenceandto

remainawarethatwhatseemslikegoodintuitionisalwayssubjecttoerrorsofjudgment.